MK2: younger below winning class

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   MK2: younger below winning class KILLED amber

   because CONTROL: aged 6 to 9, the same as MK1.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND age BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AND is_handicap = 1 AND last_win_type = 'Chase' AND race_class IS NOT NULL AND last_win_class IS NOT NULL AND race_class > last_win_class

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.08 on 421 bets, by period 1.05 · 1.17. info

   Betfair SP return -2.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.12). Zone: all. On MK2: younger below winning class

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3311.05

   Later half901.17

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   MK2: younger below winning class Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.081 on 421 bets