MK2: younger below winning class

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL: aged 6 to 9, the same as MK1.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND age BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AND is_handicap = 1 AND last_win_type = 'Chase' AND race_class IS NOT NULL AND last_win_class IS NOT NULL AND race_class > last_win_class

Reads: race_type, age, is_handicap, last_win_type, race_class, last_win_class

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND age BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AND is_handicap = 1 AND last_win_type = 'Chase' AND race_class IS NOT NULL AND last_win_class IS NOT NULL AND race_class > last_win_class

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

421

A/E

1.08

winners vs the prices

SP return

-16.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-2.5%

419 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. MK2-younger-below-winning-class Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.081 on 421 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for MK2-younger-below-winning-class (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea MK2-younger-below-winning-class: MK2: younger below winning class (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.