Threads · published · SYS-costly-jumping-nobody-wrote-down
System: Lost ground at its fences with no error in the remark
- Hypotheses
- 1 (1 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Shadow
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 23:51
Where it stands: forward A/E 0.0 on 0 bets, SP ROI None%, BSP ROI None% (p None)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
System: Lost ground at its fences with no error in the remark SHADOW
because A chaser beaten last time, in the bottom quarter of its field for ground gained at the fences, with no jumping error in its remark. Its jumping cost it and nobody wrote that down, so the defeat is read as lack of ability (1.14 on 989 runs in the year it was looked at, level at bookmaker SP). NOT PUBLISHED: followed forward to see whether the hidden cost is under-forgiven.
race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_position > 1 AND last_jumping_error = 0 AND last_ground_gained_pct <= 0.25
made by import
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
System: Lost ground at its fences with no error in the remark Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
System: Lost ground at its fences with no error in the remark Frozen → SHADOWimport: followed forward from 2026-10-15, not shown on the site
Tested15 Oct, 23:21
forward check refused. error
Zone: forward. On System: Lost ground at its fences with no error in the remark
Tested16 Oct, 23:51
forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info
Zone: forward. On System: Lost ground at its fences with no error in the remark
Where it started
A chaser beaten last time, in the bottom quarter of its field for ground gained at the fences, with no jumping error in its remark. Its jumping cost it and nobody wrote that down, so the defeat is read as lack of ability (1.14 on 989 runs in the year it was looked at, level at bookmaker SP). NOT PUBLISHED: followed forward to see whether the hidden cost is under-forgiven.