System: Lost ground at its fences with no error in the remark

Mechanism and rationale

A chaser beaten last time, in the bottom quarter of its field for ground gained at the fences, with no jumping error in its remark. Its jumping cost it and nobody wrote that down, so the defeat is read as lack of ability (1.14 on 989 runs in the year it was looked at, level at bookmaker SP). NOT PUBLISHED: followed forward to see whether the hidden cost is under-forgiven.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_position > 1 AND last_jumping_error = 0 AND last_ground_gained_pct <= 0.25

Reads: race_type, last_race_type, last_position, last_jumping_error, last_ground_gained_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

063ac2eabd40e45f28dc4e9b1e4b79e2bceafd0d95245559fd1e058ca71a23f4

Frozen

15 Oct, 01:00

Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Backing

exchange

Kind

system

Live from

2026-10-15

Matched

none

Published

false

Rules

• A chase today, and a completed chase last time in which it was beaten.
• The in-running remark for that run records no jumping error.
• It was in the bottom quarter of that field for lengths gained jumping.

Source

In-running remarks against measured jumping, October 2026

System id

costly-jumping-nobody-wrote-down

Tier

none

Where

race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_position > 1 AND last_jumping_error = 0 AND last_ground_gained_pct <= 0.25

Discovery result

Not measured yet.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

• forward check refusederror

  · 15 Oct, 23:21

• forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info

  0 bets · · 16 Oct, 23:51

  Breakdown

  betsA/E0.71.01.3

  forward0–

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. Job 2115 finished

   16 Oct, 23:51 · engine:compute-1

2. forward result for SYS-costly-jumping-nobody-wrote-down (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info

   16 Oct, 23:51 · engine:evaluator

3. compute-1 took job 2115 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   16 Oct, 23:51 · compute-1

4. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   16 Oct, 23:51 · engine:scheduler

5. Job 23 finished

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:compute-2

6. forward result for SYS-costly-jumping-nobody-wrote-down (forward check refused): error

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:evaluator

7. compute-2 took job 23 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   15 Oct, 23:21 · compute-2

8. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:scheduler

9. SYS-costly-jumping-nobody-wrote-down Frozen → SHADOW import: followed forward from 2026-10-15, not shown on the site

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

10. SYS-costly-jumping-nobody-wrote-down Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

11. New idea SYS-costly-jumping-nobody-wrote-down: System: Lost ground at its fences with no error in the remark (import)

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Shadow.