SYS3: pulled up jumping as usual

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   SYS3: pulled up jumping as usual SHADOW

   because Live rule without the run style: parent + Jump Index in that run no more than 0.15 below its norm.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND s_jump_index_prev IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev >= -0.15

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.11 on 971 bets, by period 1.11. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On SYS3: pulled up jumping as usual

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago9711.11

   Last year0–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 1.12 on 791 bets, by period 1.12. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On SYS3: pulled up jumping as usual

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago7911.12

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 1.08 on 180 bets, by period 1.08. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On SYS3: pulled up jumping as usual

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1801.08

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 1.11 on 580 bets, by period 1.11. info

   Betfair SP return +12.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On SYS3: pulled up jumping as usual

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year5801.11

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   SYS3: pulled up jumping as usual Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   SYS3: pulled up jumping as usual Vault → SHADOWimport: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.113 on 971 (GB 1.121, IRE 1.076), p 0.122 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests; LEARNINGS read it as holding

8. Tested15 Oct, 23:21

   forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info

   Zone: forward. On SYS3: pulled up jumping as usual

9. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   SYS3-pulled-up-jumping-as-usual (SYS3: pulled up jumping as usual) pointed the predicted way (positive) on the sealed holdout but too weakly to prove it: A/E 1.113 on 971 bets (p 0.122, false-discovery threshold 0.0034); tracked forward in SHADOW.

   result0.35waiting for a reasoning passfrom SYS3-pulled-up-jumping-as-usual

10. Tested16 Oct, 23:21

    forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info

    Zone: forward. On SYS3: pulled up jumping as usual