Hypotheses · jumping-holdout · SYS3-pulled-up-jumping-as-usual
SYS3: pulled up jumping as usual
forward A/E 0.0 on 0 bets, SP ROI None%, BSP ROI None% (p None)
Starts the thread “SYS3: pulled up jumping as usual” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ holdout
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 4
Mechanism and rationale
Live rule without the run style: parent + Jump Index in that run no more than 0.15 below its norm.
The rule
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND s_jump_index_prev IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev >= -0.15Reads: race_type, last_position, l_same_code, sp_decimal, s_jump_index_prev, l_jump_index
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- 321575cbddf3ad0ca33ddc98d42df19f2e8f41f3c0d7bbd862d17ba29729bdc6
- Frozen
- 14 Oct, 01:00
- Nothing in the definition can change after this.
- Direction
positive
- Frozen in
research/experiments/raceiq/holdout_systems
- Frozen on
2026-10-14
- Id
SYS3-pulled-up-jumping-as-usual
- Rule
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND s_jump_index_prev IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev >= -0.15
Result (from the archive)
info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 580
- A/E
- 1.11
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -5.8%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +12.5%
- 580 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 14.3%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
- Bets
- 971
- 14 Oct, 13:00
- A/E
- 1.11
- p = 0.12
- BH threshold then
- 0.0034
- over every vault test so far
- Outcome
- Failed
- from the archive
Forward record
- forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info
0 bets · · 15 Oct, 23:21
Breakdown
betsA/E0.71.01.3forward0–Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. - forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info
0 bets · · 16 Oct, 23:21
Breakdown
betsA/E0.71.01.3forward0–
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
Job 2104 finished
· engine:compute-1
forward result for SYS3-pulled-up-jumping-as-usual (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info
· engine:evaluator
compute-1 took job 2104 (forward_check, attempt 1)
· compute-1
Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system
· engine:scheduler
Job 12 finished
· engine:compute-2
forward result for SYS3-pulled-up-jumping-as-usual (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info
· engine:evaluator
compute-2 took job 12 (forward_check, attempt 1)
· compute-2
Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system
· engine:scheduler
SYS3-pulled-up-jumping-as-usual Vault → SHADOW import: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.113 on 971 (GB 1.121, IRE 1.076), p 0.122 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests; LEARNINGS read it as holding
· importer
SYS3-pulled-up-jumping-as-usual Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault
· importer
SYS3-pulled-up-jumping-as-usual Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen
· importer
import result for SYS3-pulled-up-jumping-as-usual (discovery year (reference)): info
· importer
import result for SYS3-pulled-up-jumping-as-usual (Ireland): info
· importer
import result for SYS3-pulled-up-jumping-as-usual (Britain): info
· importer
import result for SYS3-pulled-up-jumping-as-usual (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info
· importer
New idea SYS3-pulled-up-jumping-as-usual: SYS3: pulled up jumping as usual (import)
· importer