TW1: veterans top weight

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   TW1: veterans top weight KILLED red

   because Top weight in a veterans' handicap chase. Predicted above the market.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND lower(race_name) LIKE '%veteran%' AND weight_rank_high = 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.98 on 207 bets, by period 0.82 · 1.22. info

   Betfair SP return -42.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.82 to 1.22. Zone: all. On TW1: veterans top weight

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22910.82

   2023 to a year ago861.22

   Last year30–

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   TW1: veterans top weight Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 0.985 on 207 bets