TW1: veterans top weight

Mechanism and rationale

Top weight in a veterans' handicap chase. Predicted above the market.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND lower(race_name) LIKE '%veteran%' AND weight_rank_high = 1

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, race_name, weight_rank_high

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND lower(race_name) LIKE '%veteran%' AND weight_rank_high = 1

Kind

history

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

207

A/E

0.98

winners vs the prices

SP return

-18.0%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-42.8%

30 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. TW1-veterans-top-weight Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.985 on 207 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for TW1-veterans-top-weight (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea TW1-veterans-top-weight: TW1: veterans top weight (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.