Hypotheses · veterans-age · AB2-veterans-aged-11
AB2: veterans aged 11
best [broad] RED A/E 0.891 on 419 bets
Starts the thread “AB2: veterans aged 11” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Aged 11 in a veterans' handicap chase. No prediction.
The rule
race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND lower(race_name) LIKE '%veteran%' AND age = 11
Reads: race_type, is_handicap, race_name, age
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND lower(race_name) LIKE '%veteran%' AND age = 11
- Kind
history
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 419
- A/E
- 0.89
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -29.7%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -1.7%
- 80 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 11.2%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
AB2-veterans-aged-11 Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.891 on 419 bets
· importer
import result for AB2-veterans-aged-11 (broad): info
· importer
New idea AB2-veterans-aged-11: AB2: veterans aged 11 (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.