Hypotheses · race-size · H110-small-field-form-into-a-big-field
H110: small field form into a big field
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.999 on 5444 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H110: small field form into a big field” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: placed in a field of 6 or fewer last time, in a field of 14+ today. Small-field form flatters.
The rule
last_field_size <= 6 AND last_position <= 3 AND field_size >= 14
Reads: last_field_size, last_position, field_size
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
last_field_size <= 6 AND last_position <= 3 AND field_size >= 14
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 5,444
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -28.8%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -21.8%
- 982 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 7.7%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H110-small-field-form-into-a-big-field Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.999 on 5444 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H110-small-field-form-into-a-big-field (broad): info
· importer
New idea H110-small-field-form-into-a-big-field: H110: small field form into a big field (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.