H172: young experienced chaser

Mechanism and rationale

Aged six or less with three or more chases behind it, in a handicap chase: still improving physically but no longer a novice at the job, and rated on what it did while learning.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age <= 6 AND chase_runs >= 3

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, age, chase_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age <= 6 AND chase_runs >= 3

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

5,282

A/E

1.00

winners vs the prices

SP return

-17.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-6.0%

841 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H172-young-experienced-chaser Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.998 on 5282 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H172-young-experienced-chaser (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H172-young-experienced-chaser: H172: young experienced chaser (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.