H18: gordon elliott novices

Mechanism and rationale

Gordon Elliott's novices and maidens over jumps.

The rule

trainer LIKE 'Gordon Elliott%' AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1) AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

Reads: trainer, is_novice, is_maiden, race_type

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

trainer LIKE 'Gordon Elliott%' AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1) AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

2,952

A/E

1.02

winners vs the prices

SP return

-22.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+41.5%

574 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 18.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H18-gordon-elliott-novices Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.018 on 2952 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H18-gordon-elliott-novices (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H18-gordon-elliott-novices: H18: gordon elliott novices (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.