Hypotheses · collateral · H90-the-form-has-not-worked-out
H90: the form has not worked out
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.001 on 122137 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H90: the form has not worked out” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: five or more rivals from its last race have run since and none has won. A weak race.
The rule
hot_runs >= 5 AND hot_wins = 0
Reads: hot_runs, hot_wins
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
hot_runs >= 5 AND hot_wins = 0
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 122,137
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -25.9%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +3.9%
- 18,700 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 9.4%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H90-the-form-has-not-worked-out Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.001 on 122137 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H90-the-form-has-not-worked-out (broad): info
· importer
New idea H90-the-form-has-not-worked-out: H90: the form has not worked out (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.