Hypotheses · overlay · IQ142a-hurdle-prep-with-figures

IQ142a: hurdle prep with figures

KILLEDamberFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.207 on 134 bets; published as SYS-hurdle-prep-handicap-chase

Starts the thread “IQ142a: hurdle prep with figures” 2 hypotheses

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL: hurdle run as a prep for a handicap chase, runners whose last run has the figure.

The rule

(race_type = 'Chase' AND region = 'GB' AND is_handicap = 1 AND is_novice = 0 AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND prior_chase_runs >= 2 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4) AND sp_decimal <= 15) AND l_entry_speed_pct IS NOT NULL

Reads: race_type, region, is_handicap, is_novice, last_race_type, days_since_last_run, prior_chase_runs, last_position, sp_decimal, l_entry_speed_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: (race_type = 'Chase' AND region = 'GB' AND is_handicap = 1 AND is_novice = 0 AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND prior_chase_runs >= 2 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4) AND sp_decimal <= 15) AND l_entry_speed_pct IS NOT NULL
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 134
A/E: 1.21; winners vs the prices
SP return: +22.3%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +35.8%; 133 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.26

Strike rate 17.9%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half911.13

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

IQ142a-hurdle-prep-with-figuresKILLEDIQ142a: hurdle prep with figuresmade by import

SYS-hurdle-prep-handicap-chaseLIVESystem: Chaser prepped over hurdlesmade by import

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

hypothesis note IQ142a-hurdle-prep-with-figures
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
IQ142a-hurdle-prep-with-figures Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.207 on 134 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ142a-hurdle-prep-with-figures (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ142a-hurdle-prep-with-figures: IQ142a: hurdle prep with figures (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.