System: Chaser prepped over hurdles

Mechanism and rationale

An established chaser whose last run was over hurdles is fit, and a moderate hurdle run hides it. Chasers coming straight from another chase, the obviously fit ones, only match their prices.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND region = 'GB' AND is_handicap = 1 AND is_novice = 0 AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND prior_chase_runs >= 2 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4) AND sp_decimal <= 15

Reads: race_type, region, is_handicap, is_novice, last_race_type, days_since_last_run, prior_chase_runs, last_position, sp_decimal

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Backing

bookmaker

Kind

system

Live from

2026-10-13

Matched

{
  "hypothesis_id": "IQ142a-hurdle-prep-with-figures",
  "similarity": 0.9,
  "variant": "broad"
}

Published

true

Rules

• The race is an open handicap chase in Britain (not a novices' race).
• The horse has run in at least two chases before.
• Its last run was over hurdles, within the last 45 days, and it finished fourth or worse or failed to finish.
• It starts at 14/1 or shorter.

Source

Chase preparation analysis, October 2026

System id

hurdle-prep-handicap-chase

Tier

none

Where

race_type = 'Chase' AND region = 'GB' AND is_handicap = 1 AND is_novice = 0 AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND prior_chase_runs >= 2 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4) AND sp_decimal <= 15

Discovery result

Not measured yet.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. hypothesis note SYS-hurdle-prep-handicap-chase

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. New idea SYS-hurdle-prep-handicap-chase: System: Chaser prepped over hurdles (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Live.