Hypotheses · trait · IQ17-erratic-jumper
IQ17: erratic jumper
best [broad] RED A/E 1.012 on 3459 bets
Starts the thread “IQ17: erratic jumper” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: Jump Index has swung widely over its last three runs in today's code (spread of 0.85+, the most erratic quarter). The good day sets the price.
The rule
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_n3 = 3 AND s_jump_index_std3 >= 0.85Reads: race_type, s_n3, s_jump_index_std3
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_n3 = 3 AND s_jump_index_std3 >= 0.85
- Kind
remarks
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 3,459
- A/E
- 1.01
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -19.7%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +5.3%
- 3,455 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 12.1%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
IQ17-erratic-jumper Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 1.012 on 3459 bets
· importer
import result for IQ17-erratic-jumper (broad): info
· importer
New idea IQ17-erratic-jumper: IQ17: erratic jumper (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.