IQ33: costly jumping with nothing in the remark

Mechanism and rationale

Last run: bottom fifth of the field for ground gained jumping and in the slower half to recover, completed and beaten, and no jumping error in the remark. A cost nobody wrote down, so nobody allows for it.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jumping_error = 0 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.2 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1

Reads: race_type, last_jumping_error, l_lgj_pct, l_recovery_time_pct, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jumping_error = 0 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.2 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase today",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jumping_error = 0 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.2 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run in today's code",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jumping_error = 0 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.2 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jumping_error = 0 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.2 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "normally a good jumper (already seen in batch 1)",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jumping_error = 0 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.2 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1) AND (l_same_code = 1 AND s_lgj_pct_prev >= 0.6)"
  },
  {
    "name": "normally a poor jumper",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jumping_error = 0 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.2 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1) AND (l_same_code = 1 AND s_lgj_pct_prev <= 0.4)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info normally a poor jumper · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

749

A/E

0.89

winners vs the prices

SP return

-48.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-37.1%

749 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 6.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ33-costly-jumping-with-nothing-in-the-remark Discovery → PROMISING import: best [normally a good jumper (already seen in batch 1)] GREEN A/E 1.543 on 281 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ33-costly-jumping-with-nothing-in-the-remark (normally a poor jumper): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ33-costly-jumping-with-nothing-in-the-remark (normally a good jumper (already seen in batch 1)): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ33-costly-jumping-with-nothing-in-the-remark (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ33-costly-jumping-with-nothing-in-the-remark (last run in today's code): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ33-costly-jumping-with-nothing-in-the-remark (chase today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. import result for IQ33-costly-jumping-with-nothing-in-the-remark (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

8. New idea IQ33-costly-jumping-with-nothing-in-the-remark: IQ33: costly jumping with nothing in the remark (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.