System: Wide trip last time, with a top speed in the upper half of its field

Mechanism and rationale

The wide-trip system, kept to horses whose measured top speed that day was in the upper half of the field. Furlong times run post to post, so a horse going wide looks slower on them than it was; its top speed is measured on the horse and is not fooled. Cut from the parent on 14 October 2026 after one look at the year the parent was found on (731 bets). NOT PUBLISHED: followed forward beside the parent to see whether the cut holds on races it was never fitted to.

The rule

last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4, 0) AND last_top_speed_pct >= 0.5

Reads: last_raced_wide, last_position, last_beaten_lengths, last_slow_start, last_run_style, last_race_tilt, last_field_size, last_top_speed_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

ec8d9192c8c1ccb4b4bad67bc0668d5887cd049fbfa926d4d842578ba1fe9395

Frozen

15 Oct, 01:00

Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Backing

bookmaker

Kind

system

Live from

2026-10-15

Matched

{
  "hypothesis_id": "IQ140a-wide-trip-with-figures",
  "similarity": 0.71,
  "variant": "broad"
}

Published

false

Rules

• Everything the wide-trip system asks for.
• Its top speed on that run was faster than at least half of the rest of the field.

Source

In-running remarks and measured top speed, October 2026

System id

wide-trip-fast-top-speed

Tier

none

Where

last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4, 0) AND last_top_speed_pct >= 0.5

Discovery result

Not measured yet.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

• forward check refusederror

  · 15 Oct, 23:21

• forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info

  0 bets · · 16 Oct, 23:36

  Breakdown

  betsA/E0.71.01.3

  forward0–

Lineage

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. Job 2111 finished

   16 Oct, 23:36 · engine:compute-1

2. forward result for SYS-wide-trip-fast-top-speed (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info

   16 Oct, 23:36 · engine:evaluator

3. compute-1 took job 2111 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   16 Oct, 23:36 · compute-1

4. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   16 Oct, 23:36 · engine:scheduler

5. Job 19 finished

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:compute-2

6. forward result for SYS-wide-trip-fast-top-speed (forward check refused): error

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:evaluator

7. compute-2 took job 19 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   15 Oct, 23:21 · compute-2

8. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:scheduler

9. SYS-wide-trip-fast-top-speed Frozen → SHADOW import: followed forward from 2026-10-15, not shown on the site; from IQ140a-wide-trip-with-figures [broad]

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

10. SYS-wide-trip-fast-top-speed Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

11. New idea SYS-wide-trip-fast-top-speed: System: Wide trip last time, with a top speed in the upper half of its field (import)

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Shadow.