Hypotheses · shape · H52-flattered-closer

H52: flattered closer

PROMISINGnegativePassed discovery and is being attacked. Most promising ideas die here.

tier N: a negative; best [last run at a sharp track] NEGATIVE A/E 0.757 on 559 bets (broad NEGATIVE); published as NEG-flattered-closer

Starts the thread “H52: flattered closer” 2 hypotheses

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the overnight batches
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 4

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: held up in a race that fell apart for the leaders and finished in the first 40% without winning.

The rule

last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND last_position > 1 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4

Reads: last_run_style, last_race_tilt, last_position, last_field_size

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND last_position > 1 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
Refinements: [ { "name": "last run at a sharp track", "rule": "(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND last_position > 1 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4) AND (last_track_sharpness >= 2)" }, { "name": "beaten 3 lengths or less", "rule": "(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND last_position > 1 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4) AND (last_beaten_lengths <= 3)" }, { "name": "favourite or second favourite today", "rule": "(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND last_position > 1 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4) AND (sp_rank <= 2)" } ]
Tier: N

Result (from the archive)

info favourite or second favourite today · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 535
A/E: 0.90; winners vs the prices
SP return: -17.9%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -5.4%; 535 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 22.6%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half2210.80

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

H52-flattered-closerPROMISINGH52: flattered closermade by import

NEG-flattered-closerLIVENegative: Flattered closermade by import

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

hypothesis note H52-flattered-closer
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
H52-flattered-closer Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [last run at a sharp track] NEGATIVE A/E 0.757 on 559 bets (broad NEGATIVE)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for H52-flattered-closer (favourite or second favourite today): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for H52-flattered-closer (beaten 3 lengths or less): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for H52-flattered-closer (last run at a sharp track): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for H52-flattered-closer (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea H52-flattered-closer: H52: flattered closer (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.