Negative: Flattered closer

Mechanism and rationale

Held up last time in a race that fell apart for the front-runners, and finished in the first 40% without winning. The leaders came back to it; the close finish was not earned.

The rule

last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND last_position > 1 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4

Reads: last_run_style, last_race_tilt, last_position, last_field_size

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Backing

none

Kind

negative

Live from

none

Matched

{
  "hypothesis_id": "H52-flattered-closer",
  "similarity": 1,
  "variant": "broad"
}

Published

true

Rules

none

Source

none

System id

flattered-closer

Tier

confirmed

Where

last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND last_position > 1 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4

Discovery result

Not measured yet.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. hypothesis note NEG-flattered-closer

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. New idea NEG-flattered-closer: Negative: Flattered closer (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Live.